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This week we say goodbye to the FOX broadcast team until
next February. I do enjoy their coverage more than the other networks (ESPN
would be my favorite if they would get rid of that whiny Rusty
Wallace). My only beef with FOX's coverage is that – even as knowledgeable as
he is about race cars - Larry Mac comes across as a bumbling idiot with his
constant butchering of the English language. My wife is a school teacher and it
drives her up the wall listening to his horrible grammar. But nobody in NASCAR
ever won any money or rewards for proper grammar. The problem is that when I
convince friends to watch that are not fans of NASCAR, it solidifies the
stereotypes that the public has about our sport being a bunch of backwoods
rednecks. Well, that is our heritage of the sport, so I guess I will get off
Larry’s back about that. He seems like a great guy and would probably be a hoot
to hang out with, and the man definitely knows more about race cars than I ever
will.
The one thing I want to take issue with about this week’s
coverage is the broadcasters’ picks on who they think will win the championship
this year. They all had their reasons for their picks, but the fact is that no
one picked the team that has shown that it has this new Chase format down pat –
the 48 team with back-to-back Championships.
Last year – before the Chase began – Jeff Gordon was
dominating everyone. Gordon had 9 top 5’s in the first 13 races last year with
3 wins. Busch has the same number of top 5’s with one more win to show at this
point in the year (although Gordon did win again the next week in Pocono last
year). At the end of the “regular season,” Jeff Gordon had a commanding lead
over second place of 317 points. Yet, all of that lead was erased once the
Chase began. And when the Chase got underway, that is when the Lowes team and
Jimmie Johnson started their own domination. Early season domination proved worthless
once the points were reset for the beginning of the Chase.
At this point in the season, it is impossible to gauge who
will be hot or cold once the Chase starts. All that matters is what happens at
that point – not today. All of the racing going on right now is preliminary and
pretty much pointless for the Chase except for a few bonus points for wins that
carry over. The only thing that matters right now is staying in the Top 12. Once
the Chase begins is when hot streaks count for anything.
Right now there are two drivers that I think you could make
the call for as contenders for the Cup. Those drivers are Jimmie Johnson and
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Other than those two, we will have to wait until the Chase
starts to see who is hot at that point. Kyle Busch has been hot at times, but not consistent enough. Junior has shown the kind of
consistency that can win under the Chase format. The 88 team has also shown
that it can handle adversity. Case in point: last week at Lowe’s Motor Speedway when the team came back for a
top 5 finish after slamming the wall and crushing the right side of the car. If
he keeps that consistency during the Chase, the Cup could well be in hand for
Junior, and Junior fans could have a most bittersweet victory in the Earnhardt/Busch rivalry. The last factor that is hard to calculate into the equation is the drive that Junior has to win the Championship. He said that was the main reason for going to Hendrick Motorsports in the first place - to win championships.
But love him or hate him, Jimmie Johnson has come alive
during the Chase the last couple of years – right when it matters most. That is
when it counts and that is what has given him the Cup twice in a row. I heard
Darryl Waltrip say earlier this year that Chad Knaus had told him they could be
running up front every week, but they were tweaking and getting ready for later
in the year. As long as Johnson can stay in the top 12 until then, that is a
scary thought for his competitors. They have shown that they have what it takes
to bring home the Championship and know how to thrive in that competitive environment.
Johnson and Knaus have proven that they can take the pressure and dominate the
sport when it is all on the line. Unless he just stumbles during those last 10
races, for the first time in three decades, we may have our first three-peat
Champion in this sport.
Keith@insidethepitbox.com
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