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With four races remaining until the 2008 Chase for the Championship begins, let's take a look at the drivers that truly have a shot of being part of the fifth "playoff " process.
While mathematically twenty drivers could have an outside shot of securing a spot in the Top 12, the reality is that only about fourteen drivers truly are competing for this year's Chase.
Ryan Newman is currently 204 points behind 12th place Matt Kenseth which is a huge number and you factor in that he is 182 points behind 13th place Clint Bowyer and 115 markers behind 14th place David Ragan.
If we agree on that point, then fourteen teams can still dream about a championship but remain sleepless in doing what it takes to secure a position. Okay, that's a little dramatic because the drivers that are in Top 5 in points as we speak: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Jeff Burton are basically in--let's talk reality. Matter of fact, if Kyle Busch finishes the race this week with a Top 10 finish, he could go on vacation for a few weeks. In 5th position, Burton has a 209 point cushion on 6th place Jeff Gordon and a whopping 315 point lead over Matt Kenseth. Quite simply, I like these drivers chances and they should be going for wins and future bonus points.
When you look at the current back half of the Top 12, the points are pretty tight and clearly some drivers will move up and down between now and Louden. The point difference from 6th place Jeff Gordon and 14th place David Ragan is 215; however the number is greatly reduced when comparing 6th place to 12th place---that's only 126. For a prespective, that the difference from finishing 4th place to last--unlikely to disappear in one race but with four events to go, it's not a lot.
Most of us judge a particular driver's year by wins and our memories from week to week---you basically know who is running well and who is not. Sure, some guys will get a lucky finish here and there and conversely, you will get in a wreck, have rain, or get caught by fuel mileage. However, if you pay attention each week, you know the contenders and pretenders.
In review, I looked at the number of finishes each of these drivers had from 11th to 20th place during the first 22 races. To me, it's a good indication of consistency when you do not have a winning or Top 5 car. Keep in mind, not everyone can have the finishes like Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards--sometimes its making a weak lemonade out of lemons. If you follow my numbers, the drivers that are already in the Top 12 appear to be in good shape.
Jeff Gordon has had 7 finishes so far this year in my " Top 20 " category or you could say he has 17 Top 20 finishes. While disappointing compared to his roll in 2007, Gordon has done well and it would take four more " Watkins Glen " type of finishes to not make the Chase and that won't happen. Consequently, Tony Stewart fans should feel good too, he's finshed four times from 11th to 20th, a total of 15 Top 20 finishes. Let's face it, Smoke has been up front this year and has had some terrible luck but he's on a nice run of late and will be Chase-bound.
The guys from 8th on down in points are more in doubt to me although each of them currently in the Top 12 have made the Chase before and that should be a benefit. While Kasey Kahne and Denny Hamlin do not have many Top 20's, two things help them out. Both have won races this year, led laps, and are on good teams. Hamlin, much like Stewart, has had bad luck, he's more of a guy that should be toward the Top 5 in points than toward 10th place. The driver in the 10th spot, Greg Biffle, has not had lady luck fall his way for wins but has been consistent---he's got eight of my " Top 20 " finishes or 17 overall Top 20 places. His luck should turn around and this weekend at Michigan could be place where it starts.
Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth are in the 11th and 12th positions respectively and have bounced in and out of the Top 12. Harvick has slipped in the points throughout the first 22 races but you have to say he's been consistent--he has 19 overall Top 20 finishes and as they tell us, he finishes races. Kenseth, on the other hand, has been playing catch-up all year and he's not a guy I would like to out point down the stretch. The good news for the #17 team, the next four races are favorable for them.
That leaves Clint Bowyer in the 13th slot and surprising up-and-comer David Ragan in the 14th position. The #07 team has struggled of late which is kinda surprising and you have to wonder if the strain of running for the Nationwide crown has affected the Cup effort. Besides that, conflicting reports are out about the new 4th team at RCR next year and the role the #07 team might have with that. It's just 22 points separating Bowyer from Kenseth so if you think those 2 teams will not be paying attention to the other, think again. You have to think that RCR will make sure it's four best COT's get in the hands of the #07 team.
The driver that probably faces the least pressure to get in the Chase yet could sneak in there is David Ragan. Can we all agree he is the 2008 Most Improved Driver? While he has not lead laps or really contended for a win this year, he has out-performed several former Cup winners while staying out of trouble. A lot of his success has to go to crew chief Jimmy Fennig, an underrated, veteran head man that has worked with many drivers and been successful. Fennig has been one of the overlooked stories of the year and more coverage should come his way. While doubtful to make the Chase, if a couple teams slip up over the next month, it's not a great stretch that Ragan and the #6 team could find a spot in the final 12.
Something about getting in the Chase and potentially being successful once in there is a point that ITPB's Sharon Bundy brought out in her last article and that is consistency. She made a great point in comparing the last four races of Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson and how the #48 team would be ahead right now if the Chase had begun at that time. It's pretty simple: Be consistent enough in the first 26 races to secure a spot in the Chase and if you win in that time period, it's an added bonus. Once the final 10 races begin, stay out of trouble, finish in the Top 10 to 15 and you should have a shot at the crown. At the end of the day, that's about all you can ask. Like the #48 teams great success in the Chase last year, exceptions are out there. However, if you consistently run toward the front, you can not only get in the Chase but also do well once in there.
The final four events should be quite entertaining for race fans and competitive for the teams we mentioned above. Let's wish all the teams the very best in securing a spot in the 12 man Chase.
Jeff@insidethepitbox.com
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