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Let me digress for a second, check out my last article on ITPB in which I talked about the Budweiser Shootout, I messed up on the date to post and could not get it set correctly. Between Keith and myself, we tried to discuss the problems as well as we could.
You have to hope the weather will not affect the outcome of the Chevy Rock and Roll 400 since so much is on the line for the #07, #6, and #9 teams. Although I believe the weather is supposed to be better for Saturday night than on Friday, teams will have to prepare or at least discuss the possibility of getting to lap 201--it's a reality. While it is a stretch that we won't have a few cautions early, a couple hundred laps can go quickly at RIP.
I'll admit that I would still favor only going with the Top 10 in points to make the Chase, still it is kinda exciting to see at least three drivers really racing hard for that coveted 12th spot. All three make a nice story: Bowyer, the Spring winner there, likeable Midwest aw-shucks kinda guy; Ragan, clearly the most improved driver in NASCAR, maybe even in racing, consistently running well and coming on; and Kahne, two race wins, a fan favorite, desperately trying to get Dodge in the Chase. While guys like Hamlin, Kenseth, and Gordon could stumble early and play a little part in the 12th spot--most likely it's the three drivers we mentioned above fighting it out. That being said, the very earliest we should have all positions set would be with five laps to go, probably the last lap.
Don't be overexcited that the open-wheel invasion in the last 12 months has not worked out well. Some of it has really been of no fault of the driver alone other than taking a chance of coming to NASCAR. I'm specifically talking of Dario Franchitti and Patrick Carpentier. Given their ages and lack of stock car experience, I think they did quite respectable at times and have shown traces of good things, especially in the Nationwide Series. They are likeable guys that have tried to fit in with the NASCAR scene. It's hard to understand how that #40 car could never get a full-time sponsor for Dario, maybe it shows that sponsors had some doubts if he could pull it off in the Sprint Cup Series. He's going back to a good opportunity in that #10 car for Ganassi racing in the IRL.
Along with that assessment, guys like Sam Hornish Jr. and A.J. Allmendinger have father time on their sides. Hornish will definitely go through 2009 and Allmendinger could be a real sleeper down the line, he's progressed and should try to stay in NASCAR for awhile, no matter what happens at Team Red Bull. These two guys need seat time and lots of it.
If the open-wheel invasion is going to work again, it has to be done the way the handlers for Scott Speed have tried to do it. Take small steps, be patient, know they will wreck a few cars along the way, but give them time. Yes, it is easy to make that statement when the dollars are not coming from my pockets but these guys will need time to adjust. NASCAR Sprint Cup racing is a big jump from ARCA success and a Truck win but when you see the progression that Speed has made at all tracks, especially facilities that have Cup races, he's done well.
Something that has not been discussed this year--or at least I missed it--is what does NASCAR do if we have ties in the Chase? From what I remember, a tie in the points at let's say 8th position would mean that 11th place--which means 12 drivers--would move on. Now, I thought at one point NASCAR mentioned that if more than one driver would tie for the last transfer position--either 10th before or now 12th--that actually more than 12 drivers would make the Chase. I think it was called affectionally at one time the " Dale Earnhardt Jr. " rule. According to the circumstances involved, that could help Kasey Kahne since the first tiebreaker in points is wins. Just giving you or NASCAR something to think about.
Finally, speaking of Kahne, he could go from missing the Chase entirely to making the Chase, seeded as high as 4th place and being anywhere from just 50 to 70 points behind Kyle Busch as they head to Louden. Talk about thrill of victory and agony of defeat.
Here's something even wilder: it's likely the Chase will include at least five drivers, maybe even six, that could make the Chase without winning a race in the first 26 races--Biffle, Harvick, Stewart, Kenseth, Gordon, and maybe Ragan. On the other side, three drivers that have won in 2008 so far, Newman, Ku. Busch and Kahne likely will miss the Chase. And, remember Kasey Kahne could win this weekend and still miss the Chase, it's a possibility. Boy, have I given some ammunition to the writers and bloggers for next week.
If you are in the path or have been in the path of hurricanes this past week or in the upcoming days, our hearts go out to you and hope destruction is little to nothing for you. The rest of us can wait on races, please be safe.
Jeff@insidethepitbox.com
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